Water AlliesTier 1
at 24 Jan Mox Saga Store Champ
decks
1
(4.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
4-3-0
overall winrate
57.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
73.1%
avg ELO +11.6 per match
expected value
51.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
59.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1223
· median 1223
· range 1223–1223
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1103
Q1 1226
Q3 1411
1688
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 16.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 56.5% | +4.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.1% | +21.0 |
| Water Fractal | 8.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.8% | +23.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.4% | -2.6 |
| Fire Neos | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.3% | +24.5 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
